Mid-Season Review of Brock Purdy: System QB or bona-fide MVP candidate?

By James Constan

Brock Purdy is one of the most polarizing players ever in the NFL. Drafted as Mr Irrelevant as the 262nd pick in the 2022 draft, Purdy took over the 49ers offense in week 13 of 2022 and hasn’t looked back since. Last year, Purdy led the 49ers to an NFC championship berth before injuring his UCL and has the Niners sitting an impressive 5-2 record this year. Purdy also has the 5th best odds to win MVP this year. However, the Niners have the best supporting cast in all of football, with multiple All-Pros including LT Trent Williams, RB Christian Mccaffrey, WR Deebo Samuel, TE George Kittle, and FB Kyle Juszczyk. Purdy also has impressive wideout Brandon Aiyuk and one of the league's premier coaches Kyle Shanahan. This impressive group of players has led to doubters hypothesizing that any average QB could lead the Niners to success while putting up decent stats, discounting Purdy as a system QB who doesn’t have standalone value or an excess of talent. To find the extent of Purdy’s skill and value, a deeper dive into his stats is necessary.

The Argument Supporting Purdy

Brock Purdy has a career 12-3 record, and his success is a product of his complete skill set as a game manager and accurate passer. Purdy is currently second in QBR , trailing only Patrick Mahomes in a metric that considers the full-scale of a QB's impact on winning. Currently boasting a ridiculously high TD/INT ratio of 24/7 (3.42), Purdy would rank third in NFL history (for TD/INT ratio) if he qualified with enough passing attempts. In 2022, Purdy was not considered much of a pocket passer averaging only 152.7 yards per game. However, Purdy’s passing prowess has taken a huge step forward in 2023, as he is averaging nearly 240 yards per game. Purdy doesn’t get sacked very often, thanks in part to his smart decision-making with the ball. Purdy ranks in the top 14 of sack probability over expected , a metric that measures how often quarterbacks get sacked vs. the baseline expected amount of sacks for their situation. In Jimmy Garoppolo's 57 games with a similar Niners team (albeit minus Mccaffrey) he had a much less impressive QB/INT ratio of 82/42 (1.95) and a much worse win-loss ratio of 39-18. However, his win-loss ratio cannot be taken completely at face value due to defensive improvements from the Niners since Garappolo was replaced with Purdy.

The Argument Against Purdy

In week 6 against the Browns, much of his supporting cast in McCaffrey, Williams, and Samuel were all forced off with injuries. A flustered Purdy finished the game 12/27 with one TD and an interception while only throwing for 125 yards. The very next week, still without Samuel and Williams, Purdy managed a more impressive 272 yards but only threw for one touchdown with two costly interceptions, leading to another Niners loss in which they only scored 17 points. So without his dangerous weapons that are consistent league leaders in YAC and pass protection ratings, Purdy’s play was not up to his normal standards.

The Verdict

Brock Purdy is the perfect quarterback for the 49ers offense, a tactical game manager with great ball security who can get the ball to his playmakers in space. However, he is understandably incapable of producing All-pro level production without his top playmakers, making Purdy somewhat of a product of his system.

So above average quarterback who could lead the 49ers to the Superbowl? Yes. MVP frontrunner? Pump the brakes a little bit.