Predicting the 2024 UEFA Champions League Winner

By Asher Esty

Why the entire tournament will be decided in a measly quarter-final match

The UEFA Champions League (UCL) is the most prominent football tournament in Europe, created in 1955 to bring together the best teams from across the continent. From dominant German giants to formidable Ukrainian underdogs, the competition provides football (soccer) at the highest caliber. Where else can a small club from a historic town in Switzerland compete against Manchester City, the treble winners and so-called “Champions of Europe”? There is only one home for football this magnificent, and it's called the Champions League. With the UCL final on June 1, the question on the mind of any fan is who will be lifting the sterling silver trophy on June 1st in front of 90,000 fans at Wembley Stadium? Both Premier League title chaser Arsenal and La Liga powerhouse Barcelona have high chances of winning, yet in this article, I will focus on why either Real Madrid or Manchester City will win the coveted trophy and why their game on Wednesday, April 17, will decide the winner.

Real Madrid have a long way to go if they want to win the Champions League. Maintaining a probability of winning around 13% (Tied for second highest with Arsenal, Bayern Munich, and Barcelona), they are undoubtedly fighting an uphill battle against last year’s champions Manchester City. Being a club that is no stranger to winning the UCL, having won it fourteen times - the most of any club, they are a team of talent, passion, and motivation that has been nearly unrivaled for two centuries of football. The two components of ‘Los Blancos’ that could send the team home with another trophy are indeed, their electric youth players and their experienced leaders. First, I would strongly recommend watching youngsters Vinicius Jr. and Arda Güler play because some of the magic these boys produce is jaw-dropping. With Vini being 25 and Güler being 19, these two have long, illustrious careers ahead of them, but they are in form at the moment and show no signs of stopping. Meanwhile, English wonderkid Jude Bellingham is thriving in his central attacking midfield role, and is showing why he deserves every Euro of his 103 million. Additionally, Madrid legends like Toni Kroos and Luka Modrić offer experience, reliability, and a real spine to their team that helps guide these youngsters into growing into their roles.

Real Madrid star Jude Bellingham celebrates after scoring

Despite these strengths, Los Blancos have a few chinks in their armor that, given the right strategic play, could be exploited to catch them wrong footed. First, their goalkeeping situation is unreliable. With Thibaiult Courtois picking up an ACL tear that has him sidelined for the rest of the season, manager Carlo Ancelotti must choose between starting Andriy Lunin and Kepa Arrizabalaga, both of whom are incredibly unreliable and tend to make mistakes behind the sticks. Secondly, with the parting of Karim Benzema at the end of the 2022-2023 season, Madrid has been without a central striker, and so the absence of a ‘number nine’ to put the ball behind the net could severely hinder the chances of Real Madrid winning the UCL.

By far, the favorite team to win the Champions League is none other than treble winners Manchester City. With a 38% probability (according to Opta analysis statistics), they are by far the most likely to win, and the team that almost every unbiased pundit and analyst agrees will dominate the European tournament. In this team of superstars, there is no chance that the “robot” Erling Haaland can be neglected as a force in this tournament. With the second most goals in the Champions League so far, the goal-scoring machine recognizes the game with brilliant skill and is a beast in the opponent’s box. Also, under the guidance of manager Pep Guardiola, he has managed to find his footing as one of the best current players in the world. Along with Haaland come those who supply him, and skillful players like Kevin De Bruyne, Phil Foden, and Bernardo Silva have moments of greatness on the pitch that emulate the skill of legends Andrea Pirlo and Xavi.

Like in David and Goliath, all giants must fall. Footballing giants Manchester City have only one spot where they can be penetrated, and thus, their Achilles heel is the foot of Joško Gvardiol. Left-back Gvardiol has simply been inconsistent, being lazy to cover his man and often slow in comparison to the attackers he faces. This side has proven a consistent issue for ‘City, as agile wingers such as Salah and Rodrygo have been able to run around him. If there is a place where Manchester will concede goals and lose their firm grasp on the premier league, it will be on the left side with Joško Gvardiol at the heels of the attacker.

Croatian Fullback Joško Gvardiol communicates with his goalkeeper

In sum, statistics, history, and current form all point to one of these clubs winning the coveted Champions League. Bayern Munich and Arsenal do not have the composure or skill to beat either ‘City or Madrid, so, the match between these two clubs on Wednesday, April 17 will undoubtedly decide the winner of the entire tournament.