Who Will Win the 2025-2026 NBA MVP Award?

Last season's MVP, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, lifting his award

The NBA today is full of superstars, who make their case for Most-Valuable-Player (MVP) every time they step on the court. So far, around twenty players are averaging over 25 points per game this season, a statistic demonstrating how talented the league is. Yet, three players stand out above the rest: the Los Angeles Lakers’ point guard Luka Doncic, The Denver Nuggets’ center Nikola Jokic, and the Oklahoma City Thunder’s point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA). Each player has certainly played spectacularly so far, but the race might come down to external factors. Although each player has performed exceptionally, injuries and team success are pivotal in making Shai Gilgeous Alexander the frontrunner thus far.

It is imperative to acknowledge the impressive season, reigning MVP, and champion SGA is having. His averages per game are 31.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 5.2 assists. Yet on top of his stats, what makes SGA special is his efficiency. He can score the ball at will, with a high field goal percentage of around 55% and a true shooting percentage-advanced stat that tracks efficiency by combining both field goal and free throw percentage of 67%. This efficiency, combined with the fact that the Thunder have been extremely successful with the best record in the league this season, places SGA in a tier of his own. In the hunt however, is Jokic, the Serbian center who has won three out of the last five MVP awards. It would not be surprising if his remarkable averages of 28.9 points, 12.2 rebounds, and 10.7 assists are enough to win him another award. Yet, the biggest thorn in Jokic’s MVP case is his availability this season. On December 29 2025, Jokic hyperextended his left knee, which kept him sidelined for 16 games. The NBA has a rule that requires players to play at least 65 regular-season games to be eligible for awards, meaning Jokic can only miss one more game for the rest of the season, making it very unlikely for him to win MVP. This rule essentially makes it a two-player race between Luka Doncic and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. On paper, Luka’s game averages of 32.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 8.6 assists are all better compared to SGA. He is having a historically great scoring season, leading the league in points per game and 40-point games. Although Luka’s stats seem better, what separates SGA is his team's success, his overall efficiency, and his superior defense. The award is for the top-performing player, who has the most valuable effect on their team winning games. From what we have seen so far, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has been the most well-rounded and impactful player and is the clear favorite to win MVP.