Does the Regular Season Matter?

By Max Kerrigan

Analyzing the Effect of Regular Season Performance on Playoff Performance

Everyone knows the only thing that matters for any sports organization is winning championship. While the regular season does matter for playoff seeding that is about it. Take the best team by record of all time the: 2022-2023 Boston Bruins. They came into the playoffs with the most points of all time playing the second wild-card team, the Florida Panthers. There was a 43-point difference between the two teams which is just four points short of the point total by the San Jose Sharks this season. The Bruins were strongly favored going into the series but they inevitably lost in game seven from an overtime snipe by Carter Verhaeghe.

The fifth-best team of all time, the 2018-2019 Tampa Bay Lightning, suffered an even worse defeat. They faced the Columbus Blue Jackets, a team that snuck into the playoffs by only one point, and the Lightning lost in four.

It is often believed that curses in sports are only superstition, and there is no basis to suggest that they are true. On the other hand, the NHL’s president's trophy curse remains true almost every year. Since 1986, the year the trophy was inaugurated, the President’s Trophy winner has won The Stanley Cup eight times. Those eight wins are out of only37 years. So that means 29 out of 37 years an inferior team, according to the regular season, has won the cup. This number might seem miniscule, but when looking at other major four sports leagues it is evident just how little the NHL seeding matters.

In the NBA, in 51 of the 77 NBA Finals played, the Champion was one of the two number one seeds that year. When looking even deeper at the seeding we can see even further how little the regular season matters. In the NBA’s entire history, a total of six eight seeds have beaten the one seed. In the NHL since 2010, there have been triple that number as 18 wild card teams have advanced, and in only one of those seasons all four wild card teams lost. There are multiple reasons for this phenomenon. Sometimes injuries affect a team's ability in the regular season. Playoffs often see players return from long-time injuries, but that is true in the NBA too along with other leagues of every kind.

The main difference is the way teams are built and that playoff hockey is more physical and less skillful. Teams that are built with skilled players and star talent often struggle in the playoffs as defenders start playing chippier and more physically. The other difference lies in goaltending. There are lists of goalies who are big players and step up in big moments. Goalies like Fleury, Jarry, Hill, and many more saw massive save percentage increases heading into the playoffs whereas other goalies' save percentages fell. Because of all these reasons, the regular season in the NHL means significantly less than it does in any other big four sports league. As players play through injuries and play harder to try and win their organization silverware, the regular season point total means nearly nothing.